Today, I would like to discuss two topics. The first is the preparations
being made for the establishment of the Nuclear Power Environmental Maintenance
Organization (provisional name), and the second is this summer's electric
power demand forecast.
On June 6, the Diet passed the Special Law for Nuclear Disaster Measures,
laying the framework for high-level radioactive waste disposal. I would
like to take this opportunity to thank all those involved for their hard
work in assuring its passage.
In the past, Japan's failure to establish such a framework has caused some
to liken it to a 'palace without plumbing.' But as a nation committed to
the establishment of a nuclear fuel cycle, the implementation of a high-level
radioactive waste disposal system has long been a top priority for those
of us in the electric power industry.
Some claim that we lag 10 years behind Europe and the United States in
this regard. For those of us in the electric power industry, the passage
of the Special Law for Nuclear Disaster Measures therefore represents an
important first step toward the development of such a system.
Actual waste disposal operations will be handled by the soon-to-be-established
Nuclear Power Environmental Maintenance Organization (provisional name).
As electric utility operators, however, we plan to actively support the
organization's founding, and once it is established, to assist in facility
site selection and public relations activities to secure public understanding.
The following are some of the specific activities we have planned:
o Presidents of the nine major electric power companies and the Japan Atomic
Power Company will formulate plans and obtain necessary approvals in preparation
for the organization's establishment in October of this year.
o Within the FEPC, a steering committee of management-level planning executives
will be formed, and a sub-committee level Planning Office will be established
to handle detailed plans for the organization's establishment. Pending
completion of the necessary paperwork, the Planning Office will be officially
established on July 1, with staff of approximately 20 persons. Because
waste disposal is a project that requires ultra long-term planning, and
because the difficult question of a site location still remains unanswered,
the road ahead will not be an easy one.
Nonetheless, for the sake of generations to come, it is a project that
electric power utilities, the government and facilities operators must
work together to complete. In the days ahead, I hope that the press and
national public will understand the importance of this vital task.
I would now like to turn to the subject of this summer's electricity demand
forecast.
Summer is the season when we experience the highest demand for electric
power, and as I am sure you are aware, it is temperature that affects that
demand most significantly. In fact, a temperature increase of just one
degree can cause nationwide demand to rise by five million kilowatts -
an amount that is equivalent to the power used by 1.6 million households,
or the output of five large-scale power plants.
The Meteorological Agency has forecast hot summer weather this year, and
as is shown in Reference Document 1, the 10 FEPC member companies are expecting
a maximum demand of 176.66 million kilowatts.
At the present time, the high summer demand of 171.13 million kilowatts
recorded in 1995 still stands as a record. Although this is due in part
to the effects of the economic downturn, a major reason why summer demand
has been relatively low for the past four years is that when temperatures
in eastern Japan have been high, temperatures in western Japan have been
relatively low. Since 1996, there has never been a time when all parts
of the country have been simultaneously affected by a heat wave. As a result,
days of peak demand have not coincided.
However, as is shown in the reference materials, some 31 million room and
package-type air conditioners were sold during the past four years, and
another 7 million units are expected to be sold this year. These figures
indicate that if we do experience a nationwide heat wave this summer, it
will no doubt result in record-breaking electricity demand.
With regard to our ability to meet this kind of demand, strengthened thermal
generating capacity and other measures are expected to result in a 12%
surplus in generating capacity throughout the summer period.
In addition, distribution capacity will be boosted by the opening later
this month of the Kii Suidou DC Interconnection Facility, consisting of
an overhead power line and a submarine cable linking the Kansai region
with Shikoku. The Hokkaido-Honshu Electric Power Interconnection Facility
was the first example of this type of interconnection line. With the addition
of the Kii Suidou DC Interconnection Facility to the existing AC interconnection
lines (the No. 1 Power Line built opened in June of 1994 and the No. 2
Power Line opened in January of 2000), there will now be two major interconnection
lines between Honshu and Shikoku.
Consumer spending is also affected by summer temperatures and it is my
hope that truly summery weather will help invigorate this aspect of the
economy as well.