Reference 1

23 July 1999

Federation of Electoric Power Companies

Forecast of Electricity Demand for this Summer

1. Forecasts of Peak Load & Supply during the summer 1999(Gross Output across the 10 Companies)

Peak Load (A) mkW

176.64

Supply Capability (B) mkW

198.37

Marginal Supply Capability (C) =(B)-(A) mkW

21.73

Marginal Supply Capability Ratio (D)=(C)/(A) %

12.3

Results of Peak Load in recent Years(Gross Output across the 10 Companies)


1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

Recorded Date

4 September
25 August
4 August
25 August
2 August
2 September
3 August

Peak Load(mkW)

153.79

144.74

167.36

171.13

167.55

167.83

168.32

Inrease compared to previous year(mkW)

4.75

-9.05

22.62

3.77

-3.58

0.28

0.49

Increase rate(%)

3.2

-5.9

15.6

2.3

-2.1

0.2

0.3

Trend of Peak Load(Gross Output across the 10 companies)

2. Results of Maximum Electricity Consumption in recent Years(across the 10 Companies)


1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

Recorded Date

4 Septemb
25 August
4 August
25 August
2 August
2 Septemb
3 August

Peak Load(mkWh)

2,749.374

2,579.998

3,027.095

3,071.303

3,064.538

3,048.538

3,091.932

Inrease compared to previous year(mkWh)

60.977

-169.376

447.097

44.208

-6.765

-16.166

43.560

Increase rate(%)

2.3

-6.2

17.3

1.5

-0.2

-0.5

1.4

(Record High)

Trend of Maximum Electricity Consumption(across the 10 companies)

3. Load Sensitivity to Temperature(weekdays in summer season)

1998(across the ten companies)
4.8mkW/C

(

"Load Sensibility to Temperature" explains correlation between temperature and peak load, and is volume of maximum power increased by every 1C.

)

Trend of Shipment of Air Conditioners

4. Major New Power Plant Operations Begun or will be operational from September 1998 to August 1999


Company
Power Plant Name
unit
Output(mkW)
Start Month, Year
Hydro Power Plant

Hokkaido Electric Power Company

Takisato


0.057

July 1999

Thermal Power Plant

Tohoku Electric Power Company

Higashiniigata

No.4-1

0.805

July 1999

Tokyo Electric Power Company

Chiba

No.1-4
No.2-1
No.1-3
No.2-2

0.36
0.36
0.36
0.36

December 1998
February 1999
April 1999
July 1999

Chubu Electric Power Company

Shinnagoya

No.7-2
No.7-3, No.7-4
No.7-5, No.7-6

0.243
0.243x2
0.243x2

October 1998
November 1998
December 1998

Individual Power Plant(IPP) Operations Begun in 1999

Recieving Company
IPP Facility Name
Output(mkW)
Start Month, Year
Tokyo Electric Power Company

EBARA Corporation
SHOWA DENKO K.K.
TOMEN POWER SAMUKAWA CORPORATION
Hitachi Zosen Corporation

0.064
0.1242
0.0655
0.1027

July 1999
July 1999
July 1999
July 1999

Kansai Electric Power Company

NIPPON STEEL Corporation Hirohata Works
NAKAYAMA KYODO HATSUDEN CO.,LTD.
KOBE STEEL KAKOGAWA WORKS

0.133
0.144
0.0545

April 1999
April 1999
April 1999

Kyushu Electric Power Company

NIPPON STEEL Corporation(Tobata)
KYUSHU OI‚k CO.,LTD.

0.137
0.137

April 1999
April 1999

Total(figures of Decommisioned plants are included)
3.954

Appendix 1 : Trends in Daily Electricity Use (Daily Load Curve, total across 10 companies)

Appendix 2 : Outline of Efforts to Introduce Demand Side Management

(1)Supply and Demand Adjustment Contract

A discount system for electricity rates that applies discounts in proportion to the amount of electricity used. In return for reducing their power consumption during certain specified periods, customers are granted reduced electricity rates. Options include the Annual Adjustment Contract, which shifts load from the daytime to nighttime on weekdays, holidays, and the like throughout the year, and the Planned Adjustment Contract, which reduces load during the period forecast to have the hottest weather.

(1)Changes in Load Resulting from Supply and Demand Adjustment Contract Implementation (Total of 10 Companies)

(mkW)


FY 1992
FY 1993
FY 1994
FY 1995
FY 1996
FY 1997
FY 1998
FY 1999

Annual Adjustment Contract

3.12
3.09
3.08
3.01
3.17
3.40
3.60
3.49

Planned Adjustment Contract

2.74
3.10
3.56
3.41
3.32
3.48
4.42
4.82

Thermal Storage Adjustment Contract

0.56
0.62
0.64
0.76
0.84
0.93
1.04
1.20

Total

6.41
6.80
7.28
7.18
7.32
7.80
9.06
9.50
*Notes: Because of rounding, grand totals do not necessarily correspond with the totals for each type of contract.

(2)Ice Thermal Storage Type Air-Conditioning System(Eco Ice)

Customers can take advantage of lower nighttime electricity rates to store thermal energy at night, and use that energy to cool their buildings during the day. As a result, customers can benefit from reduced electricity rates.
(Reduced load by introducing Eco Ice in this summer will be approx. 0.25mkW which is included in the 1999 figure of Thermal Storage Adjustment Contract)

(2) Ice Thermal Storage Type Air-Conditioning System Installations (Total of 10 Companies)

(unit)

Number recorded at the end of FY
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

Decentralized Type

63
93
122
204
587
1,306
2,753
2,968

Centralized Type

370
485
576
669
822
1,002
1,195
1,223

Total

433
578
698
873
1,409
2,308
3,948
4,191
*Figures for FY1999 are based on bulletin figures from January to April

(3) Eco-Venders

An energy-saving vending machine for beverages that was developed jointly by Tokyo Electric Power Company, Fuji Electric Company and Coca-Cola Japan Company Ltd. in 1995. Compared with conventional vending machines, Eco-Venders are equipped with improved insulation, and can cool beverages thoroughly during the morning hours, and then cut their power consumption by about 90% on summer afternoons, when electricity demand is at its highest.
(Reduced load by introducing Eco-Vender in this summer will be approx. 0.34mkW)

Eco-Vender Installations(Total of 10 Companies)

(unit)

end of FY 1995
end of FY 1996
end of FY 1997
end of FY 1998
May FY 1999*
Number of unit

578

35,440

288,224

614,742

682,430

*Figures for 1999 are based on bulletin figures from January to the end of May 1999